As the price of oil increases, organically farmed food is the most profitable option

Organic food: no flash in the pan fad
Far from being niche, our research shows that as the price of oil increases, organically farmed food is the most profitable option

Peter Melchett
guardian.co.uk,
Wednesday September 03 2008 15:30 BST

Are sales of organic food dropping as a result of the economic recession? Retail sales of organic food rose by 25-30% in 2006 and 2007 – worldwide, sales have grown by an average of 30% a year for 30 years. Some slowing down of growth is certain this year, as with all food sales. But the picture varies – Asda has seen their fastest-ever growth in organic sales in the first six months of this year, mainly because they have made more organic products available in their stores, and because they are attracting more customers. Waitrose say their organic sales are holding up. Half of our expenditure on food is now spent on eating out rather than in the supermarkets, and here organic sales are growing strongly. In the meantime, people buying organic fruit, veg, meat and other food through organic vegetable box schemes are enjoying the best-quality food at prices that are often the same or even lower than non-organic equivalents in the supermarkets. But farming and food is now the UK's largest industry actually producing goods rather than services, and all farmers and food manufacturers will suffer until the economy starts to recover.

While this short-term slow down in the growth of organic food is inevitable, a more fundamental question is whether this is the start of a longer-term trend. Have organic sales reached some natural limit? Is organic simply a fad, an expensive indulgence for well-off Guardian readers? As my colleague and fellow organic farmer Helen Browning said in a Guardian article last week:
Ethical shoppers are not just middle class faddists. The assumptions that those on less than middle incomes just don't care, can't be bothered, aren't interested in better food anymore, or the health of farm animals, or our environment, are hideously patronising and fundamentally flawed.

So is the idea that organic farming a food is simply a "niche".

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